From the 1980s through the first decade of the twenty-first century, the spread of democracy across the developing and post-Communist worlds transformed the global political landscape. What drove these changes and what determined whether the emerging democracies would stabilize or revert to authoritarian rule? Dictators and Democrats takes a compre

List of Illustrations xi List of Tables xiii Preface and Acknowledgments xvii Introduction: Regime Change during the Third Wave: From Dictatorship to Democracy and Back 1 Part I: Inequality and Transitions to Democracy 1 Inequality and Transitions to Democracy 29 Part II: Pathways to Democracy 2 Modeling Democratic Transitions: Distributive Conflictand Elite Processes (with Terence Teo) 61 3 Distributive Conflict Transitions: Institutions and Collective Action 96 4 Elite-Led Transitions: International Factors and Politics at the Top 142 5 Transition Paths and the Quality of Democracy (with Terence Teo) 173 Part III: Reversions from Democratic Rule 6 Inequality, Development, and the Weak Democracy Syndrome (with Terence Teo) 219 7 Pathways to Authoritarian Rule 270 8 Learning from Anomalies: Low-Income Survivors, Middle-Income Reverters 301 Conclusion: Whither Democracy? 339 Online Resources References 359 Index 387

"Haggard and Kaufman provide an erudite analysis of the complexities of transition from the authoritarian rule to democracy in the last three decades... A first-rate contribution to the literature on regime transition."--Choice

"In a crowded landscape Dictators and Democrats stands out. It sets a high standard for multimethod research with its deep involvement in the cases and statistical analyses of regime change. Notably, the book systematically examines the causal mechanisms at the heart of class theories."—Gary Goertz, University of Notre Dame"Haggard and Kaufman have written another gem, one that is certain to become central to the study of regime change. Exploring transitions to and from democracy, they argue that influential theories of regime change focusing on modernization and inequality offer relatively little leverage compared to the importance of elite actors' interests, the nature of the ancien régime, and international factors."—David Samuels, University of Minnesota"This book rigorously analyzes transition pathways for different types of democracies and the conditions under which each is likely. It recognizes that there is no unified path to democratic outcomes and makes significant contributions to the raging debates over the role of inequality and pressures from below for redistribution. With its global coverage and careful research, it is a tour de force."—Rachel Beatty Riedl, Northwestern University"This is a seminal achievement by two master craftsmen. Substantively innovative, their book addresses the single most widely studied topic in the field of comparative politics. It is certain to be highly influential in shaping scholarly debates about democracy, authoritarianism, and regime change for many years to come."—Kenneth M. Roberts, Cornell University"Dictators and Democrats challenges theories that focus on economic inequality and distributive conflict as the primary drivers of democratic transitions and breakdowns. Through a remarkable range of data, readers are left with the most detailed map of regime transitions during the 1980–2008 period that currently exists anywhere. The lesson that democracies arise and collapse through a diverse set of political processes and mechanisms shines brilliantly through."—Dan Slater, University of Chicago